There is a lot of mis-information on the web. We hope that the information here will help you make sense of what's really happening in these trying times.
Normally I wouldn't put out a second blog so soon but the surge in NSW stuffed up some of our trips and has implications far beyond the immediate future.
Lots of vaccine stories this time around. I'll start with the most upbeat one.
Vaccines
- What you need to know about the Pfizer, Moderna and AstraZeneca vaccines **
Highly recommended overview of the three and what happens next.
- Vaccine likely to prevent Covid developing but not stop transmission
Interim results from vaccine trials are promising, but protection may be temporary and longterm side-effects are unknown, new review says
- Cyberattacks Discovered on Vaccine Distribution Operations *
IBM has found that companies and governments have been targeted by unknown attackers, prompting a warning from the Homeland Security Department.
"some cybersecurity experts say they suspect something more nefarious: efforts to interfere with the distribution, or ransomware, in which the vaccines would be essentially held hostage by hackers who have gotten into the system that runs the distribution network and locked it up — and who demand a large payment to unlock it."
- The Vaccines Will Probably Work. Making Them Fast Will Be the Hard Part. *
Front-runners in the coronavirus vaccine race won't make nearly as many doses this year as were predicted, but they may kick into high gear next year. It's a lot easier to make thousands of doses for a clinical trial than to churn out millions a month. Making vaccines is a complex, sometimes finicky process, requiring sterile conditions and precise control of temperature and humidity.
- Airlines Gear Up to Transport Vaccines That Could Revive Travel *
Planes are one part of an elaborate supply chain to move billions of doses of vaccines around the world.
"One of the biggest challenges for airlines has been ensuring that vaccines are transported at frigid temperatures. Pfizer's must be stored at an incredibly low minus 94 degrees Fahrenheit. Moderna's can be kept at a more easily managed minus 4 degrees."
- For some Americans, the coronavirus vaccine can't come soon enough. Others are taking a wait-and-see approach. **
There are a LOT of people who won't get vaccinated until they see how it works for others.
- Unexpected side effects. Two more stories since my post of 24 November.
- Updated Statistics. Things are getting a lot worse in parts of Europe.
10 December
Opposing viewpoints.- The Great Barrington Declaration
"As infectious disease epidemiologists and public health scientists we have grave concerns about the damaging physical and mental health impacts of the prevailing COVID-19 policies, and recommend an approach we call Focused Protection."
- 5 failings of the Great Barrington Declaration's dangerous plan for COVID-19 natural herd immunity
One thing that is definitely true "Current lockdown policies are producing devastating effects on short and long-term public health. The results (to name a few) include lower childhood vaccination rates, worsening cardiovascular disease outcomes, fewer cancer screenings and deteriorating mental health — leading to greater excess mortality in years to come, with the working class and younger members of society carrying the heaviest burden. Keeping students out of school is a grave injustice." The last bit seems to be true for the very young, but I'm personally not so sure about high school & uni students.
- Following on from the above, Measles Deaths Soared Worldwide Last Year, as Vaccine Rates Stalled *
The new data, from the W.H.O. and C.D.C., alarmed public health experts, who fear the effect of the coronavirus pandemic this year could bring more bad numbers.
- When Trump Was Right and Many Democrats Wrong *
Children have suffered because many mayors and governors were too willing to close public schools.
Read it and look at the science. While Australia seems to have won, at least for now, it appears that lots of people who didn't need to suffer did suffer because of the way the lockdown was handled.
- Updated Statistics. We've done a great job compared to most of the world but if Covid were to get away here, I'd thankful I live in a warm place and don't spend too much time in aircon.
3 December
24 November
More good news about vaccines and some bad news about what the disease can do to people, even if they showed no symptoms when they had it.
- Vaccine #3.
- There is mounting evidence that people, even young people, who had no obvious symptoms when they had the disease can suffer long term damage.
- Asymptomatic COVID: Silent, but Maybe Not Harmless
Researchers who have scanned the hearts and lungs of people who tested positive for COVID-19, but never felt ill, have seen telltale signs of distress.
One of those was a study of passengers on the Diamond Princess cruise ship, which was quarantined for 2 weeks off the coast of Japan. Ultimately, 712 passengers — out of 3,700 on board — tested positive. Almost half of them, 331, had no symptoms. Of those, 76 had their lungs examined by CT scan for a study. More than half had ground glass opacities, though they didn't show as much damage as people who had symptoms.
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Covid-19 Can Cause Heart Damage — Even If You Are Asymptomatic
- Even if you're asymptomatic, COVID-19 can harm your heart, study shows — here's what student athletes need to know
- COVID-19 and the Heart: A Look at Recent Research
"We're seeing patients, where they seem to have no symptoms of COVID," he says, "but when we take pictures of their heart, we see inflammation of the heart. We're worried about whether we could be creating a wave of heart problems that we won't see for a year or two."
- Finally, a technical one from a major medical journal.
Follow-up study of the pulmonary function and related physiological characteristics of COVID-19 survivors three months after recovery
Although critical pneumonia has been excluded from our study, residual abnormalities of pulmonary function and chest radiography were still observed in three quarters of the cohort at 3 months after discharge.
- Updated Statistics. The death rate for diagnosed cases continues to drop almost everywhere BUT cases are increasing at such a rate that the total number killed is rising rapidly. As the northern hemisphere heads into winter and people head indoors, it's almost certainly going to get much worse before a vaccine becomes widely available.
19 November
Vaccines are coming, but they won't get out as fast as some people think.
- Another Vaccine. Early Data Show Moderna's Coronavirus Vaccine Is 94.5% Effective *
Moderna is the second company to report preliminary results from a large trial testing a vaccine. But there are still months to go before it will be widely available to the public.
- New Zealand needs a 'traffic light' system to stop COVID-19 creeping in at the border.
It applies just as much in Australia. Covid will come in. How we manage the quarantine of people returning from overseas will determine whether or not it gets away again.
- In America,
- The coronavirus has hammered Brazil. But somehow, Bolsonaro is getting more popular. **
The right-wing former army captain is more popular than at any time since the beginning of his presidency.
When you think about the economic fallout, when people need to work every day to survive, lockdowns can't work.
- A Police Swarm. Frantic Calls. Then 3,000 People Locked Inside. *
On July 4, Australia's second-largest city went into lockdown. But residents of nine public housing towers were singled out for even stricter treatment, leading many to suspect discrimination.
And still no one has been held responsible for the private security guard mess.
- Updated Statistics. The recent uptick in South Australia shows how easy it is for the disease to get away when people come in from overseas, even when they are quarantined. While the death rate for diagnosed cases continues to drop almost everywhere, there is a disturbing number of places where the percentage of new deaths is increasing. I've highlighted those countries in my list where there has been a steady increase over the past two weeks. For most of the world, it's almost certainly going to get worse before it gets better.
13 November
Many, perhaps most, people do not understand the actual risk of the disease. Some fear it far more than necessary. Others think it's so small as to be irrelevant. The first two articles below from New Scientist should give you a better understanding than almost anything you will find in the popular press.
- Pfizer's coronavirus vaccine is more than 90 percent effective in first analysis, company reports **
This is great news but read the details and add a dose of reality.
- "The vaccine requires two doses, given three weeks apart. Pfizer and BioNTech are working around-the-clock to scale up production, in hopes of having 50 million doses — enough for 25 million people to receive both shots — by the end of the year, and 1.3 billion doses in 2021."
- The vaccine will initially be available only to selected groups, likely to include health-care workers and other people at high risk of severe disease.
- It will be essential to prioritize the limited doses to those at highest risk and to acknowledge that the extensive ultra-cold storage requirements of the vaccine, which must be chilled to minus-70 degrees Celsius, will limit the immediate impact.
There are other vaccines in preparation, but no other definitive results. It's likely to be a fair while before any vaccine becomes generally available in Australia.
- When you look at the situation overseas, we've got a lot to be thankful for.
-
As Hospitalizations Soar, El Paso Brings In New Mobile Morgues *
The nation hit a record number of coronavirus hospitalizations on Tuesday. The feared third wave has left cities like El Paso struggling with overloaded I.C.U. wards and scarce staffing.
- New York's block-by-block lockdowns are curbing covid-19. But residents aren't pleased. **
City officials are eager to avoid a repeat of deadly spring but admit 'how hard this is going to be to sustain'
New York officials have embraced a new strategy to quash coronavirus spikes — shutting down schools and businesses with almost surgical precision, using block-by-block infection data while also boosting testing and contact tracing in those communities.
I can't help but wonder if Melbourne could have got where they did by doing something similar rather than the total lockdown they had.
- This Pandemic Could Have Been Medieval
The black death killed about 35% of the population of Europe. We could face something similar. This thread by a Yale professor and physician is an absolute must-read critical to understanding COVID-19. Humankind is lucky this disease is not as lethal as previous plague-like diseases — which means we must prepare for the next one which could be worse. There is no scientific reason the next global respiratory pandemic will not be worse than this one. They tend to recur every decade or two, but it could happen anytime. We should regard this one as a wake-up call.
Should — given the short electoral cycle, I doubt anything much will happen before we get hit again.
- Updated Statistics. Reported new cases in Australia remain low with only a few cases involving local transmission as opposed to people coming back from overseas.
Since I did the table, Vanuatu has lost its status as covid free.
If you want to see just how bad it's becoming, go to the Washington Post Coronavirus page and scroll down to to the table Case and death counts by country, then click deaths and totals in the top line and look at the last column, 'Change in Daily Deaths in the Last 7 Days'. It's easy to have a big percentage increase if you are starting from a low base, but some of the increases in countries like Britain and Italy which already have a large number of deaths are really dramatic.
3 November
Many, perhaps most, people do not understand the actual risk of the disease. Some fear it far more than necessary. Others think it's so small as to be irrelevant. The first two articles below from New Scientist should give you a better understanding than almost anything you will find in the popular press.
28 October
- Rush for results could lead to inferior Covid vaccine, say scientists
"The push to roll out injections may see elderly miss out on effective coronavirus inoculations."
- Is reaching zero COVID-19 possible?
"A few have even called for a zero COVID-19 approach, attempting to eliminate the virus rather than contain its spread. New Zealand almost succeeded but, after 100 days without a case, new infections emerged from international travel and other unknown sources. While it's possible to flatten the curve using these control measures, getting to zero COVID-19 with them is more difficult."
- Worried About Covid-19 in the Winter? Alaska Provides a Cautionary Tale *
"The state is seeing record case numbers, adding to evidence that the virus is poised to thrive as the weather grows colder."
What's that got to do with Australia as we head into summer? It's not just cold that helps spread the virus, it's being indoors. Masses of people indoors with airconditioning could see another outbreak.
- TCovid-19 death rates are lower worldwide, but no one is sure whether that's a blip or a trend **
"Scientists warn against complacency in this 'cliffhanger moment,' saying even reduced lethality could mean millions more lives lost.
- Updated Statistics. Following on from the above, cases have been surging around the world; deaths trickling up. The decrease in the death rate is partly due to better diagnosis but it's real. This week's table shows how it has been dropping in different countries.
8 October
- 'Littered with failure': Scientists warn race to produce vaccine could be harmful
"If vaccines were deployed outside clinical trials before safety and efficacy have been fully established and prove to be ineffective or cause rare but severe side effects during the larger-scale roll-out, they could cause substantial harm and damage public confidence in other vaccines."
- Child deaths tied to covid-19 remain remarkably low, months into U.S. pandemic **
pinpointing why children are faring so much better than adults in this pandemic could offer clues to therapies that might work for everyone. So far, however, there are only theories.
- Forty percent of people with coronavirus infections have no symptoms. Might they be the key to ending the pandemic? **
New research suggests that some of us may be partially protected due to past encounters with common cold coronaviruses. "In an article published this month in the Journal of General Internal Medicine, Gandhi noted that in some outbreaks early in the pandemic in which most people did not wear masks, 15 percent of the infected were asymptomatic. But later on, when people began wearing masks, the rate of asymptomatic people was 40 to 45 percent.
- The secret to Australia's success in beating the coronavirus? Being an island helps. **
"among the most important factors was the decision to close Australia's border to foreigners on March 20, and subsequent internal border closures by most state governments.
I suspect it will be years before Australian's will again be able to travel freely around the world.
- Updated Statistics. Sweden, which never had a lock down, has proportionally fewer new cases than much of the rest of Europe which did.
29 September
22 September
You Don't Have To Catch Covid For It To Kill You.
15 September
- People are getting frustrated.
Around the world, health officials face death threats amid pandemic **
The first example is an Australian.
- All my takeout has delivered a mountain of trash. So I asked experts how to minimize it. **
The article is from America but applies equally to Australia.
-
Now everyone's a statistician. Here's what armchair COVID experts are getting wrong.
- Looking at covid hot spots may be the wrong way to go. Hacking the pandemic: how Taiwan's digital democracy holds COVID-19 at bay
"While the notion of 'digital democracy' is as old as the internet, few countries have really tried to find out how to practice democracy in digital spheres. In Taiwan, however, there is a strong collective narrative of digital democracy, and government and civil society work together in online spaces to build public trust." It appears that Taiwan has one of the best functioning democracies in the world.
- Updated Statistics. Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics While the number of Covid cases is increasing again, in many countries the death rate is decreasing. For example, in France, the total number of cases increased by 16% while the total number of deaths increased by only 1%. This suggests that many of the restrictions are an overreaction. Australia, however, is the worst counterexample. Total cases increased by only 1% but total deaths increased by 7%. But, as per one of the links above, these deaths were the result of earlier infections when the increase in new cases was higher. The smaller increases in total deaths follow weeks of relatively high new case numbers so the delay can't explain them.
8 September
- Something to think about when you have your next cup of coffee.
A dark brew: coffee, COVID and colonialism have left millions struggling to make a living
"The reopening of cafes has been one of the highlights of relaxed COVID-19 restrictions for many Australians. During lockdowns, long queues for takeaway coffee were testimony to caffeine's relevance to our lives.
"Yet the precarious employment of so many hospitality workers meant hundreds of thousands of casual café workers and café owners lost work. Rents and mortgages were suspended or lost, upturning countless lives. At the other end of the coffee supply chain, many coffee farmers in poorer countries, who were already struggling to make a living, are doing it even tougher."
- 4 out of 5 international students are still in Australia — how we treat them will have consequences
Australian Universities are hurting financially. What we do with interenational students in Australia will influence their future viability.
- The pandemic is ruining our sleep. Experts say 'coronasomnia' could imperil public health. **
I had no idea that this was such a big problem.
- Looking at covid hot spots may be the wrong way to go. Open COVID 'cold spots' first: a way out of lockdown for Melbourne
It's certainly worth considering.
- Updated Statistics. For the week ending 7 September, new cases in Australia continued to trend down while new cases are trending up substantially in some parts of Europe leading to new lockdowns. India has overtaken Brazil for the nummber two spot in total cases.
Points to Ponder. Covid hits old people far harder than young ones. Japan has the oldest population of any country yet their fatality rate is one of the lowest. Singapore has had more than twice as many cases as Australia but Australia has had 28 times as many deaths. Why?
1 September
25 August
- In Australia, some states may have to open some borders sooneer than their governments would like.
-
Disproportionate border closures 'could be illegal'
"State premiers could be under further pressure to reopen their borders as experts warn "disproportionate" hard closures could be illegal if coronavirus cases keep declining and call for travel bubbles between states with low case numbers."
- The article above is from the Australian Financial Review. If it isn't accessible, try
this podcast from the ABC.
- What if 'Herd Immunity' Is Closer Than Scientists Thought? *
"In what may be the world's most important math puzzle, researchers are trying to figure out how many people in a community must be immune before the coronavirus fades." This story follows on from those in last week's blog.
- Face masks. Not as necessary in most of Australia as in some countries, but if you are in a place where it seems to make sense, here are some things to consider.
- Updated Statistics. For the week ending 24 August, new cases in Australia continue to trend down while new cases seem to be trending up in some parts of Europe as they re-open. India looks as if it will soon overtake Brazil for the second highest total number of cases. On the bright side, in many countries, the death rate is falling.
I've got some more interesting stories but want to dig a bit deeper before I post them. Watch for an update later this week.
18 August
Good News?
11 August
4 August
- From the Financial Times, Coronavirus Tracked is a page about the virus, updated daily. It's far worse than we think. "the numbers of deaths over and above the historical average — across the globe, and has found that numbers of deaths in some countries are more than 50 per cent higher than usual. In many countries, these excess deaths exceed reported numbers of Covid-19 deaths by large margins."
There is an amazing amount of information on the page. Well worth a look.
- Safer than you think. Is the Subway Risky? It May Be Safer Than You Think
New studies in Europe and Asia suggest that riding public transportation is not a major source of transmission for the coronavirus. The story is from America but applies just as much here.
- Mapping COVID-19 spread in Melbourne shows link to job types and ability to stay home
This pandemic takes advantage of inequity and our most vulnerable communities. It shows us why we must include the full spectrum of society (not only those we know best) when we make decisions, communicate and ask people to work from home.
- Most people in the United States are still highly susceptible to the coronavirus, CDC study finds
"The true number of infections is probably far greater than reported cases, and few people had antibodies to the virus as of this spring." The percentage of people with antibodies would be even lower in Australia.
- How tiny Uruguay, wedged between Brazil and Argentina, has avoided the worst of the coronavirus
It's too early to be sure, but it looks as Uruguay is a winner.
- Europe scrambles to avoid a second coronavirus wave, as infections rise
"health officials warn that lax public attitudes are putting the continent on a dangerous trajectory." We're seeing some of the same in Australia. It's mostly Victoria now, but that can easily change, with or without border closures as there are always essential exceptions that allow some people in.
- Updated Statistics. For the week ending 3 August, Australia's percentage increse ws almost as bad as the week before. Once again, it was mostly in Victoria. The variation in death rates between countries is hard to explain. For example, with the world's oldest population, why is the death rate in Japan so low compared to western countries? Or why does it vary so much between different states in the US?
29 July
Best Site for Australian News, Weekly Stats & More
24 & 25 July
Tales from Australia and Around the World
- One I missed in the 24 July post below.
'Real risk at the frontline': how Australia's health workers are getting Covid-19
It's worse than I realised. "The pressure on staff as they deal with the resurgence of the coronavirus has been 'immense', the hospital peak body says.
- 'Superspreading' events, triggered by people who may not even know they are infected, propel coronavirus pandemic
Most spread the virus to only a few people — or none at all. But studies show a small percentage transmit it with alarming efficiency.
Watch the video!! It's one of the best brief explanations I've seen.
-
Victoria's aged care system on verge of collapse amid Covid-19 surge, doctors warn
- Canada's coronavirus performance hasn't been perfect. But it's done far better than the U.S. — and, so far, no where near as well as Australia.
- Sun Belt hospitals are feeling the strain from virus' surge — and bracing for worse
- The crisis that shocked the world: America's response to the coronavirus
Dysfunctional politics, a lack of funding for public health and a rush to reopen the economy ignited the resurgence of the virus.
- With Officials' Backing, Dubious Virus Remedies Surge in Latin America *
A chlorine solution, particularly popular in Bolivia, is just one of several unproven treatments gaining ground in a region desperate for hope.
- As Japan Nears 1,000 Daily Coronavirus Infections, It Shies From Restrictions *
Case numbers are climbing fast, with virus clusters in nursing homes, schools and elsewhere. But fingers are being pointed at Japan's so-called hostess bars.
- Updated statistics. I was in town for only a day between bush trips so the new ones will be out in a few days.
18 July
8 July
It's Young People Too & Weekly Stats
- Updated Statistics. I was out bush when I'd have been updating the figures so the last two entries aren't perfectly weekly. They DO show the trends. Apparently under control or getting under control in some places, going wild in others.
- Latin America's coronavirus crisis is only getting worse
The region, which is home to just 8 percent of the world's population, accounted for about half of global coronavirus-related deaths in the past two weeks and surpassed the unfortunate milestone of 100,000 fatalities this week.
That was a week ago. It's got worse since. The Brazilian president has just been diagnosed as having caught it.
- Young people urged to take virus more seriously as pandemic worsens in U.S.
"Younger patients are a widening percentage of total coronavirus hospitalizations, with those in the 18-to-49 age group growing from about 27 percent of hospitalizations the week ending March 7 to 35 percent this past week". This is a week old. It may have risen since.
- Fauci worries U.S. covid-19 cases could climb to 100,000 daily
The official tally was just over 50,000 new cases from the day before I posted this.
- Covid is killing people who never caught it. Heart conditions drove spike in deaths beyond those attributed to covid-19, analysis shows
"Fear of seeking care in hospitals overwhelmed by the pandemic may have caused thousands of deaths, experts say." The story is from America. To a lesser extent, it's true inm Australia.
- On the lighter side, How cartoons are chronicling the battle between mask wearers and Trump
24 June
Who Suffers Most & Weekly Stats
18 June
Moral Questions, Weekly Stats & More
12 June
3 Changes & Weekly Stats
8 June
Covid and Food
3 June
Long Term Outlook & Weekly Statistics Update
- Small Business and Job Disaster
- Violence in America. Some thoughts.
- Updated Statistics. Things continue to get better in Australia and New Zealand but if they don't slow down the spread in Brazil, it may eventually overtake the US in terms of the total number of cases. The death rate of those who caught the disease in different countries varies wildly. Why is it so much lower in Chile than in much of Europe?
26 May
A Few Surprises & Weekly Statistics Update
21 May
There's No Going Back
- Updated Statistics. Russia and Brazil are now numbers 2 & 3 in terms of the total number of reported cases. The UK is now the worst in Europe. Sweden has been harder hit than the other Scandinavian countries but they may be well on the way to developing 'herd immunity'. International travel is unlikely to go back to anywhere near pre-pandemic levels until there is a widely distributed vaccine.
- Speaking of Sweden, Sweden's coronavirus strategy is not what it seems
- As some countries ease up, others are reimposing lockdowns amid a resurgence of coronavirus infections
- Closer to home, Coronavirus in Bali: Tourists that chose to stay are enjoying discount rates
- "What we're really asking is when the previously normal economy will be back. The answer is "never," I'm afraid. We will return to something quite different and as yet unknown." What's happening now is a sudden and massive shift in awareness ....
- We are working from home, and we like it.
- We are eating home-cooked meals, and we like it.
- We are finding new ways to entertain ourselves, and we like it.
- We are shedding excesses from our lives, and we like it.
- And we are discovering that yesterday's status quo has left us anxious and angry, and we don't like it.
The bit above was taken from a Joah Mauldin Newsletter, Thoughts from the Frontline: Viral Thoughts in a section called "Juggling Act". It's free. I find it gives a different and very useful perspective when looking at things like the economy. (The dot points above also came from a Mauldin newsletter but I've misplaced the source.)
16 May
Useful New Information
12 May
Looking to the Future
7 May
Australian Questions Answered & More
5 May
- Updated Statistics. I couldn't fit the width into a PDF so I've done an excel spreadsheet. The spread seems to be slowing down in some countries while speeding up in others.Pe r capita, Singapore has been hit worse than the UK, but the death rate is less than 1% of that in the UK. Why? Lots of questions, few answers.
- This article from the NY Times looks at the questions above. The Covid-19 Riddle: Why Does the Virus Wallop Some Places and Spare Others? *
Experts are trying to figure out why the coronavirus is so capricious. The answers could determine how to best protect ourselves and how long we have to.
- While I like numbers and sttistics, I know better than to believe that most of the numbers in my statistics link are correct. They show trends, but do you really think that reporting covid deaths in a country like India can be as accurate as in a country like Singapore. It's not just the poorer countries. U.S. deaths soared in early weeks of pandemic, far exceeding number attributed to covid-19. This is true in many countries, the number of deaths compared too the average was far higher than the official statistics show.
- Special note.The following is long, but full of graphics so it doesn't take long to view. If you have time to browse through it, it's one of the best things I've seen.
AFTER COVID: Politics & Policy in the Age of Pandemic
This is a PDF of power point slides, from US but relevant to whole world.
1 May
Good, Bad and Seriously Ugly
- Only in America? I hope so.
White House, Congress have not given any hazard pay to the medical workers they call heroes
"Instead of hiking salaries for medical workers, numerous hospitals across the country have slashed pay for nurses and doctors, as the suspension of elective surgeries drains health-care companies of a vital source of revenue."
- Dogs are being trained to sniff out coronavirus cases
If this works, airport dogs might help get international travel going again.
- Young and middle-aged people, barely sick with covid-19, are dying of strokes
Doctors sound alarm about patients in their 30s and 40s left debilitated or dead. Some didn't even know they were infected. Thankfully, it's not very common.
- 'Second-week crash' is time of peril for some covid-19 patients
"people with the coronavirus can crash before or after they are hospitalized. Doctors report seeing patients who wait too long to seek care, including those who do not feel the symptoms of plummeting oxygen levels, such as shortness of breath, until they are in crisis. No one is sure why."
- Are Ventilators for COVID-19 Doing More Harm than Good?
This 11 minute video is one doctor's opinion. The article above mentioned possible problems with ventilators so I thought it worth including. Definitely worth a look is you want to know more about ventilators.
29 April
More Stats & Happier News
More numbers and some stories I enjoyed.
25 April
What Covid Might Do To You & Updated Death Count
23 April
It's Worse Than You Think
22 April
Updated Statistics & Easing Restrictions
18 April
What Are You Are Allowed to Do?
Different stated have different restrictions as to what you are allowed to do in the lock down. The best summary I've seen is from The Guardian. They say they update it on a regular basis. Can I visit my family or parents? Australia's coronavirus lockdown rules and restrictions explained.
Statistics
Mark Twain once quoted the saying, "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." I haven't found a definitive answer as to who originated the line but it seems appropriate in the time of Covid. I'm fascinated by numbers but I know better than to believe them all at face value.
15 April
Updated Statistics &: Air Travel
- Updated Statistics. The daily increase in the number of cases in Australia is decreasing. We may be able to begin easing some restrictions in another couple of weeks. Worldwide, it has yet to really hit many underdeveloped countries. It will be years before international travel can to get back to where it was early this year.
- Then and now: visualizing COVID-19's impact on air traffic
Drag the bar in the middle from one side to one side or the other to compare flights on 7 March and 7 April. This is just the number of flights. With many aircraft flying nearly empty, the drop in passengers is even greater.
- Flight Attendants and Pilots Ask, 'Is It OK to Keep Working?' *
The coronavirus has terrified airline crews, yet some are still flying. "I just feel like I'm supposed to be here doing this work," said one flight attendant.
I suspect it's not as bad in Australia as we have far fewer covid cases.
Food Security
Some of the stories coming out of America are terrifying. We're doing much better but need to be careful to make sure we don't go the same way.
- In America
- Dumped Milk, Smashed Eggs, Plowed Vegetables: Food Waste of the Pandemic *
With restaurants, hotels and schools closed, many of the nation's largest farms are destroying millions of pounds of fresh goods that they can no longer sell.
- 'Never Seen Anything Like It': Cars Line Up for Miles at Food Banks *
Millions are flooding a charitable system that was never intended to handle a nationwide crisis.
- Poultry Worker's Death Highlights Spread of Coronavirus in Meat Plants *
Some employees are coming in sick, and one woman died after being ordered back to work. "Our work conditions are out of control," a longtime Tyson employee said.
- A slightly different take on the story above. South Dakota's governor resisted ordering people to stay home. Now it has one of the nation’s largest coronavirus hot spots.
"The shutdown of the Sioux Falls plant, coupled with other closures, 'is pushing our country perilously close to the edge in terms of our meat supply,' Kenneth Sullivan, Smithfield president and chief executive, said in a statement. 'It is impossible to keep our grocery stores stocked if our plants are not running.'"
- In Australia
- Coronavirus visa decision provides relief for backpackers as farmers receive unprecedented applications for jobs
- A comment from a friend who has a barramundi farm. "The closing of restaurants and social distancing have had a significant impact on our sales and our margins. We are national suppliers for Woolies and Costco, and sales here have increased, albeit at lower prices. We are pretty busy, rescheduling work teams to spread talent and minimise crossover, upping hygiene policing, cutting costs, reassuring staff, doing "what if" financial analyses etc. The tricky bit is we don't know from day to day what the emerging situation will present, how long the "siege" is going to last or what the economy will look like at the end. Overall, we expect to emerge with a viable business that is well positioned for the future, but we expect the road to be rough.
It's too soon to end it but it's not too soon to start thinking about how we begin to do it.
- From the New Scientist, When will lockdown end? Nations look for coronavirus exit strategies
There are three main strategies for leaving coronavirus lockdown, but each risks a dangerous second wave and further lockdowns if things don't go as planned.M/li>
- China Ends Wuhan Lockdown, but Normal Life Is a Distant Dream *
In the city where the coronavirus outbreak was first reported, the reopening of outbound travel won’t end hard times, wariness or confinement.
- Some of Europe, 'Walking a Tightrope,' Will Loosen Coronavirus Restrictions *
Looking for a return to normal may be misplaced. Instead, the next phase is about learning how to live with the virus, possibly for a long time.
- From the New Scientist, Australia seems to be keeping a lid on covid-19 &@8212; how is it doing it?
"One option being considered is lifting restrictions in individual states or territories on a trial basis before applying the changes nationally."
With fairly sealable borders and no cases of 'community transmission' to date, the NT (excluding remote communities) might be a good place to start.
8 April
Reasons for Optimism
- New Zealand isn't just flattening the curve. It's squashing it.
- Australia has an equally low percentage of the population to have tested positive but we're not doing as well in terms of the death rate. IF we can maintain the current restrictions for another two weeks, we should be able to start loosening up. IF both countries do the same and keep restrictions on travel to and from most other countries, we might be able to go back to near normal flights between the two countries within 2 or 3 months.
- Influenza antiviral Avigan (favipiravir) to enter Phase III trials in COVID-19 patients
But "a Japanese health ministry source suggested the drug was not as effective in people with more severe symptoms. "We've given Avigan to 70 to 80 people, but it doesn't seem to work that well when the virus has already multiplied," the source told the Mainichi Shimbun."
There are lots of stories about other potential vaccines or medications which might help. In some cases, there are significant side effects. Everything I've read from sources I trust suggests a vaccine will be at least a year away.
Working From Home
7 April
America vs Australia
I've got friends and family in America. I'm thankful I'm in Australia.
- Updated Statistics. New York state has almost overtaken Italy in the total number of cases. Fortunately, the fatality rate there isn't anywhere near as high. Most of the trends (e.g. the number of new cases in Australia is droppijng) and questions I had in the 3 April post, remain the same.
- America — Why They Have So Many Problems
- It's even worse than it looks.
Official Counts Understate the U.S. Coronavirus Death Toll *
Inconsistent protocols, limited resources and a patchwork of decision-making has led to an undercounting of people with the coronavirus who have died, health experts say.
The same is true in australia, but to a lesser extgent.
5 April
Things You Can Do
News From Asia
I've been following the increase in Covid cases in Australia and around the world. Here's an abbreviated version of the table. For Australia it appears that the number of new cases per day is declining. If we can keep doing what we're doing for long enough, we might be out of this sooner than expected. That's us. If you click the link and look at the stats for the rest of the world, there are lots of interesting questions.
Lockdown: Sweden vs Norway - Sweden's population is almost twice that of Norway but they have only 14% more cases. Why?
- We think of the Scandinavian countries as similar, but the death rate in Sweden is ive times that in Norway. Why?
- In the Coronavirus Fight in Scandinavia, Sweden Stands Apart
"The country has drawn global attention with an unorthodox approach while its neighbors have imposed extensive restrictions." The infection rate is among the lowest in Europe. What makes them different?
3 April
Who Catches The Virus?
Your first guess is almost certainly wrong. According to the
Australian Coronavirus (COVID-19) current situation and case numbers, as of the date at the top of this page, there were more cases in women age 20-29 than any other group. In descending order, the next three were men age 20-29, men age 60-69 and women age 60-69. After that, it's too close to be sure. Old people may be more likely to die, but young ones are more likely to spread it. Below are two more good websites you can use to track the worldwide spread of the disease.
Comparing countries and regions within countries, New York has one of the highest rates of infection in the world but, so far, the death rate there is far lower than Italy, Spain, France or the UK. Germany has a large number of cases but a low percent of fatalities.
Per capita, New Zealand has almost as many infections as Australia, but far fewer deaths. Somewhat surprisingly, Australia and Chile have a similar percent of infections and fatalities. In both countries, people who have caught the disease have only 20% the chance of dying as someone n the US, 4% the chance of dying as someone in Italy. We're doing something right.
Covid Stories
I often sit on stories for a while before putting them into a newsletter. The pandemic is moving too fast for that. I've found the following particularly interesting for a variety of reasons.
Something Practical
From Choice, Cleaning in the time of coronavirus
How to create a COVID-19 cleaning routine for your home: the products you need and what you should do.
If you haven't already seen it, our special Covid 19 Newsletter went onto the website on 25 March. Everyone who had booked a trip should have received our a copy. Refund details are in the newsletter. Newer information is on our Availability page.